DCT for CFOs, investors and corporate-finance leaders

DCT treats a transformation as a capital-allocation problem in which every constraint has a price. The solved problem tells you what each limit costs, what the plan is worth as a range rather than a single number, and when waiting is worth more than starting.

What is each constraint costing us?
Every binding constraint has a price: the change in the best achievable value per unit of the limit. DCT reads these prices off the solved problem, so a covenant, a hiring cap and a budget line can be compared in one currency, and the costates price the state itself.
Ch. II.3 The value of capital bends at $360m (seed 26203)
What is the plan worth as a range, not a number?
DCT evaluates a plan across simulated futures and reports the distribution: the median, the tails, and the chance of breaching a floor at any point on the path, not only at the end. An average path can look safe while a quarter of the paths breach.
Ch. II.2 The average path never breaches; a quarter of the paths do (seed 26202)
When is waiting worth more than starting?
Most transformation steps cannot be undone. Under uncertainty, irreversibility gives timing an option value, and the solved problem says how long to wait and what the delay is worth, instead of leaving it to the calendar.
- Transformation operator
- Roadmaps and policy design
Ch. II.16 A margin buys a region; a trigger beats both timings (seed 26216)

Topic	DCT object	Where to read	Lab finding
Capital allocation	Costates and multipliers: the internal prices of capital	Vol. II, Ch. 3 Vol. II, Ch. 6 Vol. II, Ch. 16	Ch. II.3 The value of capital bends at $360m (seed 26203) Ch. II.6 The price of a point jumps to its cost as the build starts (seed 26206)
Transformation economics	Plans as distributions	Vol. I, Ch. 8 Vol. II, Ch. 2	Ch. II.2 The average path never breaches; a quarter of the paths do (seed 26202)
Valuation	The objective and its terminal value	Vol. I, Ch. 15 Vol. II, Ch. 5	Ch. II.5 No terminal value: the third round needs a 15-year window (seed 26205)
Financing	A standby line and a committed delay, priced against the board's appetite	Vol. II, Ch. 1	Ch. II.1 Neither lever alone meets the appetite; together, at $10.44m (seed 26201)
Risk-adjusted return	Coherent risk measures inside the criterion	Vol. I, Ch. 12 Vol. II, Ch. 12	Ch. II.12 Near 5%, a point of appetite is worth $1.6m to $1.9m (seed 26212)
Optionality and sequencing	The option value of timing; steps that do not commute	Vol. I, Ch. 3 Vol. I, Ch. 6 Vol. II, Ch. 16	Ch. I.3 Two feasible orders, two companies (seed 26103)

DCT for CFOs, investors and corporate-finance leaders

What is each constraint costing us?

What is the plan worth as a range, not a number?

When is waiting worth more than starting?

Cases to read

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